Amended from IEEE Spectrum Online:
By
Gregory Staple & Kevin Werbach
Radio
spectrum may be one of the most tightly regulated resources
of all time. From cellphones to police scanners, from TV sets
to garage-door openers, virtually every wireless device depends
on access to the radio frequency wireless spectrum. But access
to spectrum has been chronically limited ever since RF transmissions
were first regulated in the early 20th century. Now that's
all about to change. New technologies that use spectrum more
efficiently and more cooperatively, unleashed by regulatory
reforms, may soon overcome the spectrum shortage.
Since
the 1920s, regulators have assumed that new transmitters will
interfere with other uses of the radio spectrum, leading to
the "doctrine of spectrum scarcity." As a result, every wireless
system has required an exclusive license from the government.
With virtually all usable radio frequencies already licensed
to commercial operators and government entities, the upshot
has been, in the words of former U.S. Federal Communications
Commission (FCC) chair William Kennard, a "spectrum drought."
We've become accustomed to seeing every new commercial service,
from satellite broadcasting to wireless local-area networks,
compete for licenses with numerous existing users, including
the government—all of which guard their spectrum jealously.
Cellular phone service, for example, was demonstrated in the
lab in 1949 but not deployed until the 1980s, largely because
of licensing delays.
That
world is coming to an end. At least in the United States,
new technologies and regulatory reforms may soon free up enough
RF capacity to transform wireless-industry economics, especially
for popular mobile telephony and wireless Internet services.
In fact, there's every reason to think we're on the cusp of
a spectrum explosion—one that will trigger major shifts
in investment, business models, and services.
In the
spectrum-rich future, wireless connections for new voice,
music, and video services should abound, benefiting consumers
and businesses alike. In our homes, devices such as TVs, stereos,
DVD players, and PCs will come with built-in high-capacity
wireless links to swap information. Outside, new networks
will let movies and other huge multimedia files zip across
town or across the country. Billions, or perhaps trillions,
of wireless sensors will be embedded virtually everywhere.
Wireless data, voice, and video connections will be increasingly
available when we are on the move, in cars, trains, and perhaps
planes, too. New services—everything from personal music
channels to video-on-demand to mobile computing utilities
and, yes, to the latest in ever-profitable adult entertainment—will
flourish. So, too, will the markets for the hand-held devices
needed to deliver these services.
These
scenarios do not require infinite bandwidth. Relatively modest
capacity increases—from either new spectrum allocations
or new technologies—can have dramatic consequences. Today,
satellite radio is delivering scores of new music choices
to millions of listeners nationwide using just 25 megahertz
of spectrum, about the same bandwidth as four analog television
channels. Personal communications services have sparked a
sea change in data services delivered to cellphones, using
about 90 MHz. The Wi-Fi (the popular name of the IEEE 802.11
standard) revolution in wireless local-area networking was
started with only 84 MHz. Now imagine more new spectrum made
available simultaneously in the next few years than is now
used by the satellite TV, PCS, and Wi-Fi industries combined
[see table, "Sources of New Spectrum"].
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