Like Iridium’s early backers, Mobile WiMAX proponents are ignoring the growing maturity and evolution of existing mobile- and residential- broadband technologies that already enjoy a large base of users and scale, she contends.

Not so, says In-Stat analyst Daryl Schoolar. Cellular-data and Wi-Fi hot-spot providers face serious competition. WiMAX providers such as Sprint, he added, would also be in a good position to offer wireless mobile and residential broadband service along with home VoIP service, he noted.

In the United States, Clearwire and Sprint plan to offer Mobile WiMAX, with Sprint targeting a rollout to 100 million users by the end of 2008.

Don’t bet on it, says Zweig. “Just as did the Iridium community before it, the WiMAX community is failing to take into account how established technologies will evolve and improve over time.” Motorola’s Iridium venture “failed to take into account the competitive environment”. By the time Iridium could launch, conventional cellular would have captured almost all of its [Iridium’s] potential market,” she explained.

But, according to an In-Stat survey of more than 1,220 early adopters, when price was excluded as a factor, 50.8 percent said they were extremely or very interested in using WiMAX with a laptop, while 29 percent were interested in cellular data, and 19.6 percent were interested in Wi-Fi.

Then there’s “4G”.

In five years, both CDMA and W-CDMA backers may have to dump their cellular technology for OFDM anyway. Sprint has a head start with WiMAX — and the spectrum to make it happen.

Read more at: http://www.dailywireless.org/2007/05/08/mobile-wimax-the-next-iridium/.