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WiMAX Unlikely to Gain Widespread Penetration, iSuppli Predicts |
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Written by Kory Mohr
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Tuesday, 22 November 2005 |
Amended from NE Asia Online:
November 22, 2005 --
The 802.16-based WiMAX standard primarily will be limited to serving
niche market applications in the near term; and to gain adoption, WiMAX
will either have to displace a competing technology or provide a
supplementary solution, according to iSuppli Corp.
The research firm said over the last few years, WiMAX has been
hyped as the broadband wireless technology of the future, providing a
single solution for a variety of applications, including last-mile
fixed broadband access, wireless backhaul for cellular phone sites and
as an upgrade to Wi-Fi hot spots.
iSuppli said in each of the market segments being targeted by WiMAX,
there are competing wireline and/or wireless technologies; and because
of the competitions, in the near term, it will be extremely difficult
for WiMAX to gain widespread penetration into the fixed and portable
wireless broadband markets in developed nations.
It is projected that less than 5% of broadband subscribers will use
WiMAX as a fixed wireless broadband access technology by 2010. The Fig
shows the forecast of WiMAX subscribers for fixed wireless broadband
access on an absolute basis and as a percentage of total broadband
subscribers.
"With WiMAX facing tough competition from entrenched competitors, its
usage over the next few years will be limited to broadband access in
rural and underserved areas of the developed nations and as a backhaul
technology for cell sites and public Wi-Fi hot spots," said Jagdish
Rebello, principal analyst, communication systems and components, for
iSuppli.
According to iSuppli, in the portable broadband access market, WiMAX's
most potent competitor will be Wi-Fi, which will remain the dominant
short-range wireless broadband standard over the next few years,
effectively freezing out WiMAX. And in the longer term, the research
firm believes that the most significant market for WiMAX will be for
mobile broadband, i.e. vehicular access to broadband services.
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