The just-posted interview with Jeff Thompson paints a picture of radical changes coming quite soon in the way we communicate, whether at home or while we're mobile. Jeff has his own agenda but, in the broadest sense, I agree with his vision.

Jeff's agenda comes from the fact that he's CEO of TowerStream, a wireless ISP that expects to win big-time in the coming telecom sea change. The picture he paints, and one that I've been discussing for the last year, is that the advent of mobile wireless broadband will enable us to increasingly rely on mobile VoIP instead of cellular voice. The cost structure of mobile wireless broadband is much lower than that of the cellular operators. As a result, mobile wireless broadband companies like Jeff's TowerStream stand to be big winners.

One important point Jeff made is that mobile wireless broadband is much closer at hand than many believe. Motorola told him that it will release pre-standard mobile WiMAX gear in the first half of next year and other vendors have said the same thing. It won't take long for WISPs to test that gear and, in some cases, start to deploy it.

Now tell me: Assuming appropriate phones are available, why wouldn't I drastically cut my cellular minutes if I live in a city in which mobile WiMAX is widely available? That's particularly true if the WISP I use provides both fixed and mobile access for a flat rate, compared to the plethora of confusing rate plans that the cellular operators insist upon. Given the price the cellular operators are asking for 3G and given that 3G has latency issues and isn't an intrinsically IP-based system, it's hard to figure why the scenario Jeff painted won't play out in some form.

And what becomes of the existing cellular companies in this scenario? As Jeff noted, some seem to get it and are responding and some don't and aren't. He mentioned Sprint as a cellco that gets it, as indicated by its investment in both fixed and mobile WiMAX. He was too polite to name those he thinks don't get it, but clearly the fact that Verizon Wireless is comparing its 3G service to Wi-Fi hotspots in its advertising indicates that the new reality of the near future hasn't fully sunk in there.

Posted by David Haskin at 11:15 AM | Permalink